Colombia, in dispute between the left and right for the Presidency

Bogotá.- The race for the Colombian Presidency is in a technical tie between the leftist Iván Cepeda and the far-right Abelardo de la Espriella, for both the first and second rounds, according to the latest poll released this Sunday, one week before the elections. The poll, conducted by the National Consulting Center between May 16 and 22 and published by Cambio magazine, shows Cepeda, from the Historic Pact, party of the Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, with 33.4% of the voting intention for the elections of May 31, and De la Espriella, from the Defenders of the Homeland movement, with 30.9%. The difference, of 2.5 percentage points, is within the 3% margin of error of the poll and constitutes a technical tie, Cambio points out. The candidate Paloma Valencia, from the right-wing party Centro Democrático, appears distanced, with 12.6%, followed by Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo, both from the center, with 2.5 and 2.1% of the voting intentions.

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The survey shows sustained growth in the final stretch for De la Espriella, who in another survey by the same firm, published on May 3, had 20.4%, meaning he gained 10.5 points. Instead, Cepeda, who had 37.2%, conceded 3.8 percentage points, and Valencia lost three, from the 15.6% it had twenty days ago.

First and Second Round

All polls indicate that no candidate will reach the majority plus one of the votes next Sunday, which will force a second round between the top two, scheduled for June 21. In that scenario, there is also a close dispute with a technical tie between De la Espriella (43.6%) and Cepeda (40.9%), a distance of 2.7 points, but unlike previous polls, the far-right candidate now appears as the most likely to win the final victory. If the second round is between Cepeda and Valencia, the margin is even narrower, 1.7 points in favor of the leftist, who would obtain 40.8% against 39.1% of the Uribista candidate. The candidates close their campaigns this Sunday in public places, a week before the election.