Miami.- The El Niño weather phenomenon, which involves warmer-than-usual waters in the Pacific, has a 69% chance of being the strongest on record, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned this Thursday.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center raised in its most recent report the possibility that El Niño, from next October to December, will be “a historic event that exceeds the strength” of previous phenomena since 1950, when records began, with 2.5 degrees Celsius above the usual temperature.
«With an event of this magnitude, the probability of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are higher, but they are not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a probability greater than 90% of a very strong event during the autumn and winter of 2026-27 in the northern hemisphere», he stated.
El Niño strengthens
The agency raised its forecasts after detecting that El Niño, which emerged in June, strengthened over the last month, with temperature anomalies that exceeded 2 degrees Celsius on the surface of the eastern Pacific and up to 10 degrees below the surface.
The meteorological office declares the formation of El Niño when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5 degrees Celsius above the average for “several consecutive months”.
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El Niño is a climate phenomenon that involves warmer-than-normal waters in the Pacific and stronger westerly winds, which result in an increase in vertical wind shear.
Higher possibility of cyclones in the Pacific
For countries in its impact zone, such as the United States, this implies drier conditions and a warmer winter than usual, NOAA noted, although it will also mean “rains and possible flooding” in the south of the North American country.
El Niño winds also pose a higher possibility of tropical cyclones in the Pacific, although a lower probability of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
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In fact, the strengthening of El Niño led NOAA to downgrade its forecast for the Atlantic season on August 6, estimating a maximum of 13 storms, below the historical average, but in the eastern Pacific it expects up to 22 cyclones, above the average.
On the other hand, the climate agency reported that July was the hottest month in United States history since records began, with an average temperature of nearly 25 degrees Celsius, 1.8 degrees above the 20th-century average.
