{"id":468493,"date":"2025-05-21T12:25:21","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T16:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.net\/en\/uncategorized\/aurora-microsofts-ai-model-that-refines-the-prediction-of-cyclones-and-ocean-waves\/"},"modified":"2025-05-21T12:25:21","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T16:25:21","slug":"aurora-microsofts-ai-model-that-refines-the-prediction-of-cyclones-and-ocean-waves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/technology\/aurora-microsofts-ai-model-that-refines-the-prediction-of-cyclones-and-ocean-waves\/","title":{"rendered":"Aurora, Microsoft’s AI model that refines the prediction of cyclones and ocean waves"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Reliable prediction of the Earth system is essential for mitigating natural disasters, and artificial intelligence has proven promising for improving it. The journal\u00a0Nature<\/em><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0publishes this Wednesday details of Aurora, a model trained with over a million hours of diverse geophysical data<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developed by Microsoft, this artificial intelligence (AI)<\/strong> tool can surpass -according to the scientific publication- existing forecasts about the Earth system, allowing for a more accurate and effective forecast of air quality<\/strong>, the trajectories of tropical cyclones<\/strong> and the dynamics of ocean waves<\/strong>, as well as high-resolution weather prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft already unveiled this model last year; today it publishes its characteristics in Nature<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earth system forecasts provide information on a range of processes, such as weather, air quality, ocean currents, sea ice, and hurricanes, and serve as comprehensive tools for providing early warnings of extreme phenomena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are based on complex models developed from decades of data<\/strong>, which require a great deal of computing effort and often require supercomputers and complete teams for their maintenance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent advances in AI have shown promise in terms of performance and predictive efficiency; however, its use in forecasting the Earth system has not been thoroughly explored, notes Nature<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paris Perdikaris<\/strong>, from the University of Pennsylvania (United States), and his team have developed Aurora, an AI model trained with over a million hours of geophysical data – obtained from satellites, radars and weather stations, simulations and forecasts-.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Aurora, which generates forecasts in seconds, surpasses existing models in air quality, ocean waves, tropical cyclone trajectories, and high-resolution meteorology with a computational cost lower than that of current forecasting methods.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

“With the ability to be precisely adjusted for various applications at a moderate cost, Aurora represents a notable step towards the democratization of accurate and efficient predictions of the Earth system,” the authors write in their article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best results <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The researchers, also from Microsoft Research and the universities of Amsterdam and Cambridge, among others, report that the model performed better than seven forecasting centers<\/strong> in the predictions of cyclone trajectories at 5 days in 100% of the measured targets and in 92% of the targets for weather forecasts at 10 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The experiments needed to train Aurora lasted between 4 and 8 weeks, compared to the years currently needed to develop benchmark models. The authors point out that this timeframe was only possible thanks to the data previously accumulated with traditional approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may be interested in: <\/strong>Artificial intelligence, present in the first acts of Leo XIV<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers indicate that this AI is a base model for the Earth system and could be adapted for other uses besides weather forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A base model, Microsoft explains on its website, is a large-scale AI model trained with a wide variety of data. Aurora is unique because it is not limited to weather forecasting with AI, but is only one of the functions it offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What distinguishes Aurora is that it is initially trained as a base model and, subsequently, can specialize through adjustments to go beyond what is considered traditional weather forecasting, such as forecasting air pollution, the company adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During its development, researchers adjusted the model to various prediction capabilities<\/strong>, including those of ocean waves and tropical cyclones, which demonstrates -Microsoft emphasizes- its capacity as a base model for the Earth system, rather than just for the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft is not the only company that has developed an AI of this type. For example, at the end of 2023 Google published in the journal Science<\/em> its machine learning-based model, GraphCast<\/strong>, capable of making a weather forecast “faster and more accurate” up to 10 days in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Google also said that its AI outperformed traditional systems “significantly” and that it serves to offer earlier alerts about extreme weather phenomena. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reliable prediction of the Earth system is essential for mitigating natural disasters, and artificial intelligence has proven promising for improving it. The journal\u00a0Nature\u00a0publishes this Wednesday details of Aurora, a model trained with over a million hours of diverse geophysical data. Developed by Microsoft, this artificial intelligence (AI) tool can surpass -according to the scientific publication- […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":468494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[40328,40621,16157],"class_list":["post-468493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-technology","tag-artificial-intelligence-ai","tag-cyclones","tag-microsoft"],"acf":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/phj1q1-1XSl","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Captura-de-pantalla-2025-05-21-122058.jpg","dum_api":{"author_name":"EFE","author_image":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/1200px-EFE_logo.svg-96x96.png","categories_name":["Technology"],"featured_media_url":"https:\/\/cdn.deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Captura-de-pantalla-2025-05-21-122058.jpg"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/468493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=468493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/468493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/468494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=468493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=468493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deultimominuto.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=468493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}