(From Washington) This morning a message arrived at the White House stating that Iran had no intentions of negotiating with the United States a diplomatic agreement that would allow dismantling the ayatollahs’ nuclear project and opening commercial traffic in Hormuz.
The secret information was sent by Qatari negotiators, who were in Tehran to find a point of contact between Washington’s demands and the Shiite regime’s claims.
On May 29, Donald Trump had tweaked a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that had been agreed upon between the representatives of the United States and Iran with the mediation of Pakistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
The Republican president demanded that Mojtaba Khamenei—the Iranian supreme leader—eliminate his nuclear program, dismantle his ballistic missile manufacturing system, and suspend financial and military aid to the terrorist groups Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Twelve days later, after a succession of military incidents in Lebanon and the Persian Gulf, Trump broke an impasse articulated by Iran and anticipated that he was returning to the war against the Iranian regime.
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“They have taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been excellent for them, Now they will have to pay the price!!!”, Trump posted on Truth Social.
Mojtaba Khamenei, religious leader of Iran
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Iran’s reluctance to negotiate an agreement in the Middle East implies the resumption of a military conflict that is resisted by the Persian Gulf countries and supported by Israel.
The Shiite regime’s missiles have sufficient range and firepower to strike civilian facilities and military bases in Bahrain, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, four states that have always proposed a diplomatic agenda with Tehran.
Instead, Israel considers Iran its mortal enemy and always proposed to Trump that he deploy an offensive that would serve to overthrow the ayatollahs and thus initiate an institutional opening in the Persian state.
United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an official meeting in Florida
Trump always bet on diplomacy with Iran, and the military offensive he launched today aims to get Mojtaba Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard to return to the negotiating table.
But in the current situation, the president of the United States appears with a geopolitical strategy loaded with wishful thinking.
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Iran has no intentions of burying its nuclear program, dismantling its military-industrial apparatus, and suspending logistical support to Hezbollah and the Houthis. On the contrary, the regime feels strengthened by its control of Hormuz, which affects international trade.
United States public opinion does not support the war against Iran and considers it a key factor in explaining the increase in the cost of living.
The longer the war in the Middle East drags on, the more complicated Trump’s midterm elections in November could become. This is a key election for the MAGA project.
“If we need to negotiate with bombs, we will negotiate with bombs,” maintained Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War, before the conflict in the Middle East resumed.
Hegseth’s statements ratify Trump’s strategy to force Khamenei back to the negotiating table. That mechanism involves a military offensive with targets in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran knows Trump’s negotiation methods and is willing to launch dozens of missiles at Israel, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, which are Washington’s partners in the region.
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The Shiite regime’s tactic is for Arab countries to mediate with the White House to mitigate Iran’s attacks and find a diplomatic way out of this new crisis in the Middle East.
The task will not be simple. And the spiral of war can accelerate to unexpected levels.
Trump waited twelve days for a response from Tehran, and Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard are not willing to satisfy the demands of the President of the United States.
The region, again, is shaped like a labyrinth.
