“DR records fertility below replacement level for the first time”

The Dominican Republic recorded a fertility rate of 1.97 children per woman in 2026, falling for the first time below the population replacement level, according to the new demographic projections presented by the National Statistics Office (ONE).

The data are part of the report “National Population Estimates and Projections 1950-2100”, prepared with the technical support of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (Celade), a specialized agency of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Eclac).

The study shows significant changes in the country’s demographic structure and confirms that the nation is undergoing an accelerated process of population aging.

Projections indicate that the aging index will exceed the threshold of 60 by the year 2031, reflecting a sustained increase in the older adult population in relation to the child population.

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Likewise, the report anticipates that by the middle of the 21st century, the Dominican Republic will have, for the first time in its history, a number of older adults greater than that of children, a scenario that poses new challenges for public policies regarding health, social security, employment, and care.

The reduction in fertility responds to various factors, including changes in family patterns, access to education, the incorporation of women into the labor market, and the social transformations recorded in recent decades.

Specialists point out that this demographic change will force the country to adapt its social protection systems and strengthen policies aimed at the aging population, in the face of a population reality that will continue to transform in the coming decades.