Santo Domingo.– The president of the Institutional Social Democratic Bloc (BIS), José Francisco Peña Guaba, stated that the 2028 presidential elections in the Dominican Republic will be determined by a combination of political, economic, and social factors that, in his view, will begin to define the outcome well before the official start of the campaign.
In his most recent opinion piece, titled “Bold Reflections #139: The 2028 electoral board: Factors that will define the next elections in the DR”, Peña Guaba maintained that “in politics nothing is a coincidence” and that electoral processes “are built or lost years in advance,” which is why he called on political parties to prepare now for a scenario he described as more complex than in previous processes.
The political leader identified 15 factors that, according to his analysis, will influence the 2028 electoral race. Among them, he highlighted the wear and tear of the current government, the impact of the cost of living on the population, citizen security, family economy, Haitian migration, the influence of international actors, and the growth of digital leadership.
Likewise, he pointed out that the emergence of figures outside traditional parties, the increase in the youth and diaspora vote, political disaffection among citizens, the quality of public representation, and trust in the Central Electoral Board (JCE) will also play a decisive role in the behavior of the electorate.
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Peña Guaba considered that the country is heading towards an election where citizen perception and the ability to connect with the population will carry more weight than traditional party structures.
“2028 will not be an election of flags or tradition. It will be an election of results, perception, and connection,” stated the president of the BIS, warning that parties that maintain political strategies of the past could be displaced by new leaderships with a strong presence on digital platforms.
The leader also warned about the possibility of a protest vote if factors such as the deterioration of purchasing power, insecurity, and the lack of responses to the population’s main demands persist.
Finally, he called on political organizations to engage in self-criticism, renew their leadership, and strengthen their bond with young people and the various sectors of society to preserve the strength of the Dominican democratic system.
“I believe that Dominican democracy is strong, but not invincible. If the parties do not reinvent themselves, others will do it for us, and not always with the best intentions,” concluded Peña Guaba.
