More than 9 million votes could define the next president of Brazil

More than nine million Brazilians who voted for candidates other than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round could play a decisive role in Brazil’s elections this Sunday, October 25, when both candidates face off in a contest that has the country on edge.

The importance of this electorate lies in the narrow margin recorded in the first round, when Bolsonaro obtained 56,104,503 votes, equivalent to 47.03%, while Lula reached 53,879,538 votes, for 45.16% of the valid votes.

With an initial lead of approximately 2.2 million votes for the opposition candidate, the outcome will depend as much on both politicians’ ability to retain their support as on the turnout of those who backed other candidates or abstained in the first round.

Votes in Brazil elections

In the first round of the Brazil elections, 119,300,788 valid votes were counted, of which 9,316,747 corresponded to candidates who were left out of the presidential race.

This group represents an important sector of the electorate that both the ruling party and the opposition seek to win over in the second round.

However, those votes are not automatically transferred to either of the finalists. Voters can change their preference, cast a blank ballot, spoil their vote, or decide not to go to the polls again.

Likewise, citizens who did not participate in the first round, held on October 4th, could join the voting this Sunday and modify the electoral landscape.

Difference in Brazil elections

Although Flávio Bolsonaro concluded the first round with a lead of 2,224,965 votes, that result does not guarantee his victory in the second round of the Brazil elections.

If both candidates were to retain exactly the votes initially obtained and the only changes came from new support, Lula would need to capture at least 2,224,966 net votes more than Bolsonaro to overcome the recorded difference.

The landscape could also change if some citizens who previously voted for Bolsonaro were to now opt for Lula, or vice versa.

In an election between two candidates, a voter’s change of preference produces a double effect on the margin: one candidate loses a vote and their opponent gains one.

For this reason, small variations in the distribution of the vote could have significant consequences on the national result.

Majority in Brazil elections

Brazil does not establish a fixed number of votes to elect its president. The legislation requires that the winner obtain an absolute majority of valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots.

If the same number of valid votes were recorded this Sunday as in the first round, either candidate would need to reach 59,650,395 votes to secure victory.

However, that figure may increase or decrease depending on voter turnout and the number of votes considered valid.

This explains why a candidate can exceed 60 million votes and win, while, in another scenario, they could reach the Presidency with a lower amount.

Participation in Brazil elections

In addition to winning over voters from the eliminated candidacies, Lula and Bolsonaro face the challenge of mobilizing their respective political bases.

Abstention can significantly influence the result, especially when the differences between the candidates are small.

An increase in turnout in regions favorable to one of the candidates could shift the electoral balance, just as a decrease in voters in their main strongholds could.

Therefore, the volume of votes obtained by each candidate must be analyzed together with the turnout behavior and the territorial distribution of the results.

Scrutiny in Brazil elections

As the vote count progresses, the percentages for Lula and Bolsonaro may experience variations as results from the different Brazilian states are incorporated.

The fact that one of the candidates momentarily exceeds 50% of the valid votes does not mean that they have secured the Presidency, because there could still be enough pending ballots to reverse the lead.

It will be the development of the count that will allow determining when the difference between both candidates becomes irreversible.

The second round of Brazil’s presidential election thus pits two distinct political projects against each other, with millions of voters called upon to decide who will lead Latin America’s largest economy for the next four years.