“Mexico will have USMCA with the US and Canada for another decade, assures Marcelo Ebrard”

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The review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will enter a decisive stage this coming July 1st, when the three governments formally present their position on the future of the trade agreement.

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However, the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, assured that the most adverse scenario does not imply the disappearance of the treaty, but rather that it remains in force for at least another decade.

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During a meeting with the media in Mexico City, the official explained that the governments of Mexico, the United States, and Canada will submit a joint letter to the agreement’s review committee, a document that will define whether the USMCA extends its validity until 2036 or if it continues under a scheme of periodic reviews with a 10-year horizon.

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USMCA review enters a key phase on July 1st

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Ebrard detailed that the meeting will be held virtually and will include the participation of the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, as well as Canadian authorities, as established by the provisions of the treaty.

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Mexico will attend with a clear position: to promote a 16-year extension to provide certainty for investments and strengthen the economic integration of North America.

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The corresponding letter will be signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum, while the United States and Canada will do the same through their respective heads of government.

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Marcelo Ebrard assures that the USMCA will remain in force for at least 10 years

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The head of the Economy Ministry emphasized that, even if one of the parties rejects the automatic extension of the agreement, the treaty will not disappear.

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In accordance with the mechanism provided for in Article 34.7 of the USMCA, there are two main scenarios: extending the validity for an additional 16 years or maintaining the agreement for 10 years with periodic reviews.

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In either case, the treaty will continue to operate.

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Ebrard also ruled out the possibility of an immediate exit by any of the trading partners, noting that any country interested in leaving the agreement must have formally notified its decision at least six months in advance, which did not happen.

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The key points that will define the commercial future of North America

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Among the aspects that will be on the table during the upcoming negotiations are:

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• The possible extension of the USMCA until 2036.
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• The implementation of annual reviews in case the extension is not approved.
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• The definition of sectors and products that could be excluded from such reviews.
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• The rules of origin for strategic industries such as automotive and steel.
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• The need to maintain certainty for long-term investments in the region.
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Annual reviews raise concerns about investment certainty

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One of the issues that most concerns the Mexican government is the possibility that the United States will push for stricter annual reviews.

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Ebrard pointed out that sectors such as automotive, steel, and manufacturing require investment processes that develop over several years, so constant evaluation without clear rules could affect business confidence.

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For this reason, he raised the need to precisely define which products or sectors would be subject to review and which would be excluded.

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The goal is to prevent companies from facing uncertainty regarding the commercial conditions that support their investments in North America.

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United States maintains reservations about an automatic extension of the agreement

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The official acknowledged that Jamieson Greer has stated in various forums that the President Donald Trump administration is not considering an automatic 16-year renewal.

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However, he stressed that the official position of Washington will not be known until July 1st, when the signed letters from the three governments are delivered.

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In addition, he announced that a new round of talks in Mexico is already scheduled for the second half of July to continue with the negotiations.

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Mexico seeks to preserve its trade advantage in a more protectionist environment

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Ebrard acknowledged that one of the main challenges will be negotiating with a U.S. administration that maintains a more protectionist view of international trade.

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However, he maintained that Mexico has managed to maintain favorable conditions within the North American market.

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As explained, around 85 percent of trade between Mexico and the United States continues to be conducted without tariffs, which has allowed the country to maintain a competitive position in the region.

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Facing the upcoming review, the Mexican government is committed to strengthening the continuity of the USMCA and consolidating a framework of certainty that allows for continued attraction of investments, boosting exports, and maintaining economic integration with its main trading partners.

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The official expectation is that, beyond the differences regarding the review mechanism, the shared interest of keeping one of the most important trade agreements in the world in force will prevail.

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