The economy of Costa Rica will grow 4.2% in 2025, but by 2026, global uncertainty and the impact of tariffs on exports imposed by the United States will cause a slowdown to 3.5%, indicates this Tuesday the economic outlook report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
According to the report, the contribution of external demand is expected to gradually weaken due to the increase in export tariffs that the United States increased by 10%, while private consumption will remain “resilient”, with which the Costa Rican economy will grow by 4.2% in 2025, but will slow down in 2026 and 2027.
“Growth for 2026 is projected at 3.5% and for 2027 at 3.4%, curbed by weaker net investments and exports, due to increasing global uncertainty and the rise in US tariffs,” detailed the OECD.
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According to the analysis, this uncertainty will reduce foreign direct investment flows, while public investment will remain contained by the fiscal rule applied in the country.
The OECD also warned that the United States has a pending investigation regarding the export tariffs of medical devices, which is Costa Rica’s main export sector, mostly made up of American companies.
“The investigation could lead in 2026 to an increase in tariffs for medical devices, a key exporting sector for Costa Rica that is highly dependent on demand in the United States,” the OECD pointed out.
Around 2025, the OECD highlighted that the Costa Rican economy has grown by an average of 4.4% in the first three quarters of the year, and that it will close the year at 4.2%, a figure similar to the 4.3% recorded in 2024.
Regarding inflation, the report indicates that in 2026 it will be 0.8% and in 2027 it will be 2.1%, which means it will be close to the Central Bank’s target of 3%.
The country’s fiscal situation “has improved but to ensure fiscal sustainability, it is necessary to maintain strict adherence to the fiscal rule to contain public spending, introduce spending reviews to improve efficiency,” adds the document.
Regarding the financial deficit, the OECD underlined that according to government projections, in 2026 it will reach 3.3% of GDP and in 2027, 3.1%; which will be reflected in a reduction of debt to 59.5% of GDP in 2026.
The OECD recommended that Costa Rica continue its efforts to diversify its export markets, improve port infrastructure, especially in the Pacific, redirect training and education towards high-demand digital, technical, scientific and technological sectors; and eliminate regulatory restrictions on private participation in the electricity generation market.
