This is the assessment delivered this Tuesday Kaupo Rosin, head of the Estonian foreign intelligence service, in a virtual press conference prior to the publication of the annual security report of his country. The conclusions are based on information gathered by Estonian intelligence from internal Russian conversations, whose methodology was not detailed for security reasons.
Rosin explained that Russian officials see the United States as Moscow’s “main enemy.” Although Russia publicly declares its desire for a negotiated agreement, it shows no real willingness to concede and maintains its demands without modification. In the opinion of the Estonian intelligence chief, the Russian president “still thinks that at some point he can win militarily” and is convinced that he can “make a fool” of the United States during the talks.We recommend reading:Russia seeks to help Cuba after running out of aviation fuel, with stranded tourists
This perception, Rosin warned, means that Moscow is using diplomatic contacts as a delaying tactic while continuing its military offensive.
Fiona Hill, an expert on Russia and a former Trump advisor during his first presidential term, partially supported this interpretation. Hill noted that both Trump and Putin are building narratives that favor them: the American president as a successful peacemaker and the Russian leader as a victor in Ukraine.Both, Hill told the agencyAP, “need their version of events to unfold” and cling to their truth regardless of the evidence to the contrary. From Hill’s perspective, this makes the White House uninterested in revising its premise that Putin seeks peace.
Trump set June as the deadline to reach an agreement, according to what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed last week. However, during the last year Trump has set several similar deadlines that passed without consequences.
Hill questioned the quality of the information received by US negotiators. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are the main intermediaries in the talks. Hill suggested that both may have difficulty believing that the economic deterioration caused by the war is a price Putin is willing to pay for Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) greets envoys of his US counterpart Steve Witkoff (center, left), Jared Kushner (second from right) and Josh Gruenbaum, head of the Federal Acquisition Service of the General Services Administration, at the Senate Palace, in the Kremlin, Moscow, on January 22, 2026 (Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)You may be interested in:Russia, disappointed with the U.S. for Trump’s handling of Ukraine and sanctions
Furthermore, alluding to reports that Witkoff attended meetings with Putin without a State Department translator, Hill questioned whether the envoys fully understand what was discussed and warned that they might be “selectively” seeking only what they want to hear. Rosin explained that Putin is obsessed with controlling all of Ukraine and that this idea takes absolute priority over any other consideration, including the Russian economy. The conflict will continue for several years, he predicted, and only a “catastrophic” situation on the front or within Russia that threatens Putin’s power could change his position. The Estonian intelligence chief added that the Russian leader is receiving distorted information from his subordinates: the reports reaching his desk are “much more optimistic” than the reality on the ground. Lower-level officials better understand the real situation, while those of higher rank receive embellished reports that speak of non-existent successes. Residents smoke near a broken window of their apartment, damaged during the Russian drone attack, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine. January 9, 2026 REUTERS/Anatolii Stepanov Hill agreed with this assessment, noting that both Trump and Putin are likely being informed by people who tell them what they want to hear. This bubble of selective information makes any substantive agreement based on concrete realities difficult.Meanwhile, the violence continues. On Tuesday morning, Russian bombings on Sloviansk, in the eastern Donetsk region, killed an 11-year-old girl and her mother, and injured 16 other people, including another 7-year-old. Overnight, drone attacks in other parts of Ukraine left at least five injured, three of them children.
