More than 18 million people worldwide will die of cancer in 2050, 75% more than now

In the next 25 years, the increase and aging of the world population will drive the cancer death rate up by almost 75%, to 18.6 million deaths in 2050, and 30.5 million people will be diagnosed with cancer (61% more). Furthermore, more than half of the new cases and two-thirds of the deaths will be recorded in low- and middle-income countries, according to the latest report from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), based on data from 204 countries and 47 types of cancer, and published in ‘The Lancet’.

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The report explains that, despite advances in cancer treatment and efforts to address risk factors, between 1990 and 2023, the number of new cancer cases worldwide has increased from 9 to 18.5 million (105%) and the number of deaths has risen to 10.4 million (74% more), in both cases excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. The study attributes the majority of the increase in cases and deaths to aging and the increase in the world population and to 44 “potentially modifiable” habits such as tobacco consumption, diet or blood sugar levels, which can be prevented. The authors state that it is imperative that policymakers, governments, and agencies make more efforts to prevent, diagnose, and treat cancer nationally and globally. “Cancer remains a major contributor to the global disease burden and our study anticipates that it will grow substantially in the coming decades, disproportionately in countries with limited resources,” warns Lisa Force, lead author and researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. “Ensuring equitable outcomes in cancer globally will require greater efforts to reduce disparities in healthcare delivery, such as access to accurate and timely diagnostics, and to quality treatments and supportive care,” concludes Force.

Differences by countries and income

Although the study shows an increase in cancer cases and deaths between 1990 and 2023, standardized by age reveals that the death rate decreased by 24%, a reduction driven by high and middle-income countries.

On the other side of the scale, in low-income countries, those rates rose by 24%, and in the case of middle-income countries by 29%, data that underlines “the disproportionate growth” of cancer in environments with fewer resources, the report warns. Compared to other developed countries, in 2023, Spain was one of the countries with the lowest cancer incidence rate with 289 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 390 in France, 328 in Germany and 341 in the United States. In the case of deaths, Spain had 117 cancer deaths, more than the United States (114) but less than Germany (133) and France (136). Between 1990 and 2023, the number of cancer cases in Spain rose by 4.4%, but mortality fell by 28%, a situation similar to the rest of European countries, except in France, where in this period the incidence of cancer rose by 16% (the data, standardized by age, eliminate the effect of aging). In the rest of the world, between 1990 and 2023, Lebanon had the largest percentage increase in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, while the United Arab Emirates had the largest decrease in age-standardized incidence, and Kazakhstan had the largest decrease in mortality rates. By cancer types, in 2023, breast cancer was the most diagnosed in the world, followed by cancer of the trachea, bronchi, and lung, which was the leading cause of cancer deaths. In Spain, this cancer was the one that registered the most deaths in 2023, followed by colon and rectal cancer, prostate cancer, breast cancer, and stomach cancer.

Risk Habits

The study reveals that 4.3 million of the 10.4 million cancer deaths recorded in 2023 were due to 44 potentially modifiable risk factors such as tobacco, responsible for 21% of cancer deaths. In low-income countries, however, the main risk factor was unsafe sex (linked to 12.5% of all cancer deaths). By sex, 46% of cancer deaths in men in 2023 were due to “potentially modifiable” risks such as alcohol and tobacco consumption or diet, a figure that represents 36% among women, mainly due to tobacco and unsafe sex. Since four out of ten cancer deaths are related to modifiable risk factors, “there are huge opportunities” for countries to act against these habits, advises Theo Vos of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and co-author of the study.