Energy and mining have become a key engine of the Argentine economy in recent years, to such an extent that, according to private estimates based on official data, the sector contributed the same amount of dollars as the agricultural sector in the first four months of the year.
A report by the consulting firm 1816 titled “The future arrived a long time ago” reveals a key shift in Argentina’s export matrix. The production and export of oil, gas, and mining generated practically the same amount of foreign currency in the first four months of the year as the agricultural sector, with both sectors reaching a net supply of around USD 8.15 billion each, according to the BCRA’s sectoral classification.
The consultancy pointed out that “the entire market had long expected that at some point energy would be as relevant to the balance of payments as agriculture, and the truth is that this future has already arrived,” and highlighted that the net supply in the Free Exchange Market (MLC) from the energy and mining segments combined was as large as that of cereals and oilseeds during the first four months of the year.
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Components of foreign currency generation
In any case, it is worth noting that in the case of grain companies, 91% of the dollars for the four-month period came from net exports. In contrast, in the oil, gas, and mining segment, foreign trade accounted for 71% of foreign currency income, while the remaining 29% came essentially from the settlement of negotiable obligations. That is, the placement of debt in foreign currency by companies in the sector.
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“These numbers make it more than clear that energy and mining are the future, but also the present and the recent past”, indicated 1816. The participation of these sectors in foreign currency generation directly impacts the balance of payments and the country’s exchange rate dynamics.
Despite the parity reached in the first four months, the comparison between sectors does not contemplate the two most “fecund” months for the agricultural bulk harvest, May and June, in which traditionally -along with April- the greatest liquidation of foreign currency by the agricultural sector is concentrated.
The full annual performance of the agricultural sector is usually defined in that period, so the four-month comparison presents a partial snapshot of the year. In fact, a good portion of those dollars were acquired by the Central Bank both inside and outside the foreign exchange market, which allowed the monetary authority to reach the USD 10 billion target set for all of 2026 by the beginning of June.
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Stock market impact and the ANSES effect
The 1816 analysis also addresses the effect of the recent stock market rise on the state-owned energy company YPF. In recent days, a “15-year record in YPF’s stock price” was recorded, which had a considerable impact on the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) of the National Social Security Administration (ANSES).
“Due to the market rise and the purchases made by ANSES since May 2025, the FGS position in the state-owned energy company reached USD 1.736 billion this week versus less than USD 100 million when Milei took office, we calculate,” the report indicates. Oil platforms are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling site, in the Patagonian province of Neuquén, Argentina, January 21, 2019. Photo taken on January 21, 2019.
This valuation reinforces the weight of energy in the public sector’s strategic assets and in the financing capacity of the pension system.
Does seasonality change?
The economic team led by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, believes that Argentina is undergoing a change in the seasonality of the foreign exchange market. This dynamic is driven, precisely, by the emergence of the oil and mining sectors as a key pillar of the Argentine economy.
In mid-April, the head of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili, referred to this paradigm shift by maintaining that the growth of the energy and mining sectors could generate a more distributed flow of foreign currency throughout the year, unlike the traditional scheme concentrated on the harvest season in the “golden quarter” that extends from April to June.
The BCRA president considered that “there is still a deeply rooted perception regarding the seasonality of the foreign exchange market, because for decades the dynamic was marked by the seasonal impact of the main harvest”.
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The official projected a structural change in the country’s export matrix: “However, the country is evolving and becoming a more diversified economy towards energy and, eventually, mining. So, we will start to see a more balanced performance in our reserves”.
