He said that next year the debt service, which he assures is still at manageable levels, will test fiscal liquidity, the domestic financial market, and exchange rate stability, becoming the point of greatest demand in the immediate cycle.
He predicted that in 2026 the external debt service will amount to US$5,847 million, the highest level in the near term, an amount driven by an exceptionally high amortization, associated with the maturity of bonds placed in the last decade, to which are added interest of nearly US$3,000 million.
“This volume of payments implies a significant demand for dollars by the State itself, concentrated in certain months, which can generate temporary tensions in the foreign exchange market. Although the Dominican economy has structural sources of foreign currency —tourism, remittances and foreign investment—, these flows do not always coincide with the peaks of maturities of the public sector”, said the economist.
Add that, in this context, the Net Result of Exchange Market Operations (REMA) becomes a key indicator for monitoring short-term pressures, especially in an environment where the Dominican peso already showed a depreciation of 4.2% in 2025, with the dollar hovering around RD$64.
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Ng Cortiñas points out that the pressure does not only come from the outside, noting that in 2026 the internal debt service of the Central Government will reach around RD$231 billion, reflecting an abrupt jump in amortizations and a high level of interest.
“A central component of this load is the Central Bank Recapitalization Plan, whose quasi-fiscal cost will contribute about RD$39,500 million to current spending. This element introduces additional rigidity to the budget and limits the margin to reallocate resources towards public investment or social spending,” he added.
It expresses that for the coming year, the payment of -external and internal- interest will absorb around 24% of the government’s current income and more than 20% of total public spending. This proportion confirms that interest has become the most inflexible component of the budget, significantly reducing fiscal maneuverability.
Haivanjoe Ng Cortiñas states that the Dominican Republic does not face a solvency problem nor a debt crisis, pointing out that with a Central Government debt close to 48% of GDP, the level remains manageable. However, he said that 2026 will be the year of greatest financial stress in the immediate cycle, due to the concentration of payments, the weight of interest, and the sensitivity of the foreign exchange market.
“To cover these commitments, the State will have to resort to new debt placements, exceeding RD$401 billion, deepening a refinancing dynamic: more debt to pay off debt. Although this practice is not unusual in emerging economies, it increases exposure to external shocks, changes in international financial conditions, and episodes of exchange rate volatility,” he argued.
“The difference between an orderly adjustment and an episode of unnecessary tension will be in anticipation, coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, and active management of the debt calendar. The window to act is still open, but 2026 will not leave much room for improvisation,” he concluded.
